The missing graduates in England's nurseries

While there is evidence that direct contact with graduate staff has a positive impact on children’s outcomes, the latest Department for Education data reveals that just 8.6% (or 21,536) of the early years workforce have accredited graduate status (early years teacher status or qualified teacher status). Meanwhile, the number of new entrants to Early Years Initial Teacher training (EYITT) remains low and has decreased by 77% in England since 2013/14. 

Given clear evidence of the benefits of having graduates in nurseries, policymakers have responded in a number of ways. The Government's £180 million Early Years Education Recovery Programme aims to offer workforce training, qualifications, support and guidance for the early years sector. As part of this programme, the Department for Education has increased the number of funded places for Early Years Initial Teacher Training (EYITT) over the next two academic years (2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024). 

The Labour Party recently proposed increasing the number of graduates in early years settings as an evidence-led way to help reduce early years inequality. Previous policies in this area have been successful. In 2007, Labour introduced the Graduate Leader Fund policy which increased the number of early years workers with a bachelor’s degree or equivalent by 76%, from 16,500 workers to 29,100 workers. 

However, our findings show that there is a vast gap to fill: 

• The early years sector lost 15,000 staff between 2019 and 2021 and had only regained 6,000 of that number by 2022.
• While the total size of the early years workforce increased in 2023, there was a decline in the number of graduates. 
• Beyond just graduates, the total number of qualified staff declined. The growth seen in the total workforce was driven by a large rise in staff without an early years qualification – which masked a large decrease (4,4000) in staff qualified to Level 3.
• The average share of private, voluntary and independent (PVI) settings staffed by at least one accredited graduate across English local authorities is 37%, but this ranges from 0% in Middlesbrough and 8% in Cambridgeshire to 73% in Wandsworth.

Our findings also show:

• Local authorities with a higher share of early years settings staffed by at least one accredited graduate tend to have better outcomes for children. We estimate that as the share of settings in a local authority staffed by at least one graduate increases by 10%, there is a ~1.2% rise in children’s outcomes (as measured by the percentage of children reaching a good level of development).
• In order for every PVI setting delivering the universal offer of 15 hours per week of funded care for every three and four-year old to employ at least one graduate, we would need around 9,356 more accredited graduates. 
• We estimate that providing funding to target these 9,356 settings to the same level as the now discontinued Graduate Leader Fund would cost an estimated £319m.

Previous Nesta analysis revealed childcare affordability blackspots. But childcare is about more than availability and affordability. These new findings highlight issues related to the quality of childcare on offer in a local area. 

About the data Our methodology

Accredited graduates make up the smallest share of the early years workforce, accounting for 8.6% of staff 

While 70% of staff (175,368 employees) have a Level 2 or Level 3 qualification, just 8.6% (or 21,536) of the early years workforce have accredited graduate status. The remaining 21.4% have no formal early years qualification.

The number of graduates entering the workforce is declining 

There are several routes leading to early years initial teacher training (EYITT) – i.e. accredited graduate status. In 2022/23, there were 534 entrants to EYITT. While this is a 17% increase in new entrants compared to the previous year (458), this is a 77% decrease compared to the peak of 2,327 in 2013/14. 

This peak in graduate recruitment was likely caused by the Graduate Leader Fund – which finished two years prior – but still represented a small proportion of the overall workforce. Besides the winding up of this policy, the decline of graduates entering the workforce since then is likely due to several factors, not least the fairly poor financial incentives in terms of salary. 

Graduate teachers in the early years are paid less than those in primary schools. The salary for a qualified primary school teacher is between £28,000-£43,385. In comparison, the salary for a qualified early years teacher is between £25,714-£36,961.

The status of early years graduates is also important to consider. Currently, early years graduates are not awarded qualified teacher status, even though their standards, responsibilities and training are comparable to those of teachers in statutory settings. This reinforces a system that devalues early years qualifications and may be undermining efforts to boost recruitment. 

For someone looking to enrol in training, the availability of courses is limited. There are only 20 accredited providers in England offering early years initial teacher training and a further 13 providers offer assessments only. By contrast 179 providers are accredited to deliver initial teacher training courses that lead to qualified teacher status. A report from the Education Policy Institute found that many practitioners in the workforce are not undertaking training, partly due to fewer opportunities provided by employers and no guarantee of career progression.

7% of staff in private nurseries offering government-funded childcare are graduates

In 2022/23, 7.1% of the workforce in private nurseries offering government-funded childcare had graduate status – the lowest share of all provider types. Staff at these settings comprise 79% of the early years workforce excluding childminders.

That graduates are in the minority, especially in private nurseries, is significant as PVI providers are responsible for more than 5 times the number of 2-year-olds and 1.7 times the number of 3 and 4-year-olds entitled for 15 hours of free childcare compared to state-funded schools.

While the total size of the early years workforce grew in 2023, this hides a large decline (4,400) in staff qualified to Level 3. The decline in Level 3-qualified staff is masked by a large rise of 6,000 staff without an early years qualification.

Access and affordability are vital in early years provision, but quality is also important when it comes to better outcomes for children, especially disadvantaged children. As the government buys up more places, particularly in PVI settings, it is important to note that the vast majority (63%) have no graduates among their staff and the majority of the graduate shortfall is in PVI settings.

The average share of providers in a given local authority with at least one accredited graduate staff member is 37% – but this varies a lot by local authority 

Mapping PVI providers based on whether they have at least one graduate staff member helps to identify places where a significant portion of early years settings providing government-funded childcare have no graduates in the workforce.

The average share of providers in a given local authority that offers 15-hour funded places with one or more graduate staff members is 37%. But this ranges from 0% in Middlesbrough and 8% in Cambridgeshire to 73% in Wandsworth.

Our analysis suggest that local authorities with a higher proportion of early years settings staffed by graduates also tend to achieve better outcomes for children

Higher staff qualifications are recognised as a predictor of higher quality and associated with better outcomes for children. We explored whether there was any evidence of a link between the share of settings in a local authority that are staffed by one or more graduates and children’s outcomes (as measured by the percentage of children reaching a good level of development).

The chart shows that there is some correlational evidence that local authorities with a higher share of early years settings staffed by graduates have a correspondingly higher share of children reaching a good level of development. We estimate that as the share of settings (in local authorities) staffed by at least one graduate increases by 10%, there is a ~1.2% rise in children’s outcomes (as measured by the percentage of children reaching a good level of development). 

We know that children’s outcomes are intrinsically linked to the amount of deprivation in a local area, so we also examined whether there was a link between outcomes, the share of settings staffed by graduates and the level of income deprivation affecting children in a local authority. 

The chart below shows that better off local authorities (large circles) tend to cluster towards the top of the graph – demonstrating that they tend to have higher shares of settings with a graduate present and better outcomes for children. 

We examined whether deprivation affects the strength of the relationship between graduate settings and outcomes. We did this to see if the presence of graduate settings in the most deprived local authorities might have a greater association with better outcomes than in the least deprived ones. We found largely the same effects in the most deprived (blue line) and the least deprived (purple line) areas.

Beyond quantity and affordability, quality should be the focus of early years policy

As the Government buys up more places to fund the expansion of entitlements announced in the 2023 Budget, it is an important moment to reflect on the quality of early years services available to parents. 

Childcare costs in England are high, and some parents are paying excessive fees in order to continue working. However, childcare encompasses more than just affordability; higher-quality early years education improves children’s attainment. 

Policymakers are alive to this issue – the Government’s £180 million Early Years Education Recovery Programme seeks to provide ‘a package of workforce training, qualifications, and support and guidance for the early years sector’, and the Department for Education has expanded the number of funded places for EYITT over the next 2 academic years (2022 to 2023 and 2023 to 2024) as part of this programme. The Labour party has recently proposed an increase in graduate-led nurseries.

In establishing additional connections between the presence of graduates in early years settings and children's outcomes, our findings underline the urgency and importance of this issue. They also show the scale of the challenge of staffing every early years setting with at least one graduate.