Six things we learned about educational outcome gaps in England post-pandemic

Today the Department for Education published long-awaited data on educational outcomes for children in the reception year of school. The results show a significant gap of nearly 20 percentage points between educational outcomes of children on free school meals and their peers. More encouragingly, and in line with previous Nesta research, some local authorities have almost closed the gap – despite difficult economic and social challenges. 

The Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) is a statutory assessment of children’s development at the end of the early-years foundation stage in England and appraises 17 different early-learning goals. Children who reach a “good level of development” as an outcome of this assessment have the knowledge, skills and understanding expected by the end of their reception year. Children from poorer backgrounds, including those eligible for free school meals, are less likely to meet this benchmark. It has been estimated that around two-fifths of the disadvantage gap that has emerged by the time children take their GCSEs is attributable to the early years.

It’s the first time since the onset of the pandemic that we’ve had EYFSP data, a gap of three years. During this time many feared that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on early years provision would further widen the educational outcome gap that exists between children growing up in disadvantage and the national average. Sadly, today’s data makes it difficult to compare outcomes with previous years, or take account of the impact of the pandemic, and the guidance warns against making such comparisons. This is a missed opportunity and means the impact of the pandemic, which hugely affected the lives of children, may not be visible in national statistics for some time.

The following six insights from this year’s release focus on the differences by region and neighbourhood, and between pupils known to be eligible for free school meals and their peers.

1. The share of all children reaching a good level of development is 65.2%

The share of children in England who reached this benchmark increased every year from 2013 until 2019 when it stood at 71.8%.

This headline figure means that in an average class size of around 26 in England, some 17 children reach a good level of development whereas nine do not.

Yet the national average conceals significant regional and social variation. The data reveals inequality in early learning outcomes by region, local authority and neighbourhood.

2. The North West and West Midlands are the regions with the lowest share of children reaching a good level of development

Fewer children in these regions reached expected levels of communication and language, personal, social and emotional development, physical development, literacy and maths.

3. Some local authorities are struggling more than others

Looking at local authority-level data reveals that steep variation in early educational outcomes persisted in 2022.

The table below shows that in the three top-performing local authorities of Richmond upon Thames, Wokingham and Surrey, the average share of children achieving a good level of development was above 73%. Whereas, in Manchester, Middlesbrough and Luton it was below 57%.

Seven of the 10 local authorities with the lowest share of children reaching a good level of development are located in the north of England

4.  The educational outcome gap between pupils on free school meals and those who are not is 19.6 percentage points

In 2022 in England, only 49.1% of children known to qualify for free school meals were assessed as having a good level of development — 19.6 percentage points behind their peers.

The goal of the fairer start mission at Nesta is to narrow the outcome gap between children growing up in disadvantage and the national average. We know that this is possible as some local authorities have almost achieved it. In 2019, the percentage of children reaching a good level of development and not on free school meals in Hackney was 70% – which means that this local authority had almost closed the disadvantage gap. This trend broadly continues in the 2022 data, with Hackney narrowing the gap to two percentage points.

5. Some local authorities almost closed their attainment gap in 2022

The table demonstrates that there are a handful of local authorities that buck the trend and are close to closing the outcome gap. For some, such as Manchester and Luton, the smaller gap speaks to the fact that they have lower shares of children reaching a good level of development overall. Yet recent analysis by Nesta revealed that some local authorities are outperforming others despite having more challenging demographics and circumstances. 

6. It is still the case that children on free school meals have poorer educational outcomes in more affluent areas

Nesta analysis using 2018/19 EYFSP results demonstrated that children eligible for free school meals have poorer educational outcomes in affluent areas compared with their peers in more deprived local authorities. 

Repeating the analysis with 2021/22 data points to a continuation of this trend.

The pink dots highlight the London boroughs, with the left plot showing the average percentage of all children reaching a good level of development and the right plot showing the average percentage of children on free school meals reaching a good level of development. For disadvantaged children, the trend that links outcomes to deprivation is reversed – those who tend to live in areas of lower deprivation have poorer outcomes. However, there is a lot of variation in this and the trend is not quite as defined as for all children (left plot).

What do these insights mean for early years outcomes?

There is plenty to learn from today’s release. The figures underscore how important it is to support children’s outcomes and tackle outcome gaps, wherever they might live in the country. Local authorities are working incredibly hard to deliver services amid often very challenging circumstances.

In the coming months, Nesta will be talking to local authorities to build up a picture of early-years services. Our goal is to use this data to support local authorities with learning and improvement. We will work with them to find promising ideas and practices to build on and help share across the sector. By working in partnership with local areas, we hope to help identify and elevate what already works to support educational outcomes for young children. We can then work towards ensuring a fairer start for every child, and start to close the disadvantage gap.